The War Room | HoustonProFootball.com 
March 4, 2007
Checking the Comps
by Warren DeLuca
HoustonProFootball.com
Without question, the Texans have made a significant investment in David Carr. They used the first overall pick in the 2002 draft on him, signed him to a significant contract, made him the sole focus of their quarterback development efforts, and extended his contract a year ago. So if they are indeed considering trading him, they should be doing the same due diligence that any business does when deciding whether to divest itself of a major asset. Usually that includes obtaining an appraisal of the asset’s market value, and a significant component in determining the appraised value is the sales prices of comparable assets. As we ponder what deals may be out there for Carr, to estimate his trade value we should take a look at the “comps.”
Using a draft value chart, I have attempted to value and rank the return received for each quarterback traded since 2000. Each component of a trade was assessed based upon what it appeared to be worth when the deal was made. Picks traded in the summer or preseason for the following draft were slotted based upon the previous season’s draft order and picks traded during the season were estimated based roughly upon where the team stood in the standings at that point.
The values of future draft picks (for example, a 2007 pick traded during or before the 2006 draft) were adjusted down a round. The exact pick(s) dealt in a trade are not listed unless the trade occurred between the end of the season and the draft so that those picks would have been known at the time of the deal. Trades for unsigned rookies (such as the Eli Manning/Philip Rivers trade and the Drew Henson trade) were not included.
Quarterback Trade Date From To Trent Green 4/20/01 Rams with 2001 5th (#150) Chiefs for 2001 #1 (#12) Matt Hasselbeck 3/2/01 Packers with 2001 1st (#17) Seahawks for 2001 1st (#10) & 3rd (#72) Drew Bledsoe 4/21/02 Patriots Bills for 2003 1st Daunte Culpepper 3/15/06 Vikings Dolphins for 2006 2nd (#51) Aaron Brooks 7/31/00 Packers with TE Lamont Hall Saints for 2001 3rd & LB K.D. Williams Mark Brunell 3/3/04 Jaguars Redskins for 2004 3rd (#72) A.J. Feeley 3/3/04 Eagles Dolphins for 2005 2nd Steve McNair 6/9/06 Titans Ravens for 2007 4th Trent Dilfer 3/7/05 Seahawks Browns for 2005 4th (#126) Cleo Lemon 10/18/05 Chargers Dolphins for 2006 6th and QB A.J. Feeley Joey Harrington 5/12/06 Lions Dolphins for 2007 5th Patrick Ramsey 3/17/06 Redskins Jets for 2006 6th (#173) Billy Volek 9/19/06 Titans Chargers for 2007 6th, or 5th if in at least 50% of offensive snaps Trent Dilfer 5/4/06 Browns 49ers for 2007 7th and QB Ken Dorsey Tim Rattay 10/18/05 49ers Buccaneers for 2006 6th A.J. Feeley 10/18/05 Dolphins with 2006 6th Chargers for QB Cleo Lemon Todd Bouman 3/13/03 Vikings Saints for 2003 6th (#190) Ken Dorsey 5/4/06 49ers with 2007 7th Browns for QB Trent Dilfer Danny Wuerffel 3/4/02 Texans Redskins for DT Jerry Deloach Sage Rosenfels 8/22/02 Redskins Dolphins for 2003 7th Cody Pickett 7/28/06 49ers Texans for 2007 7th conditioned on making team Dave Ragone 6/19/06 Bengals Rams-for 2007 7th conditioned on making team (unranked) Brooks Bollinger 8/31/06 Jets Vikings for undisclosed pick and DT C.J. Mosley
A team that trades for Carr is going to view him as a potential starter. He has lacked the game savvy and presence of mind to get the job done in Houston, but has shown the arm, mobility, and toughness that will lead some coaches to believe that they can turn him into what he was supposed to become when he was drafted. There is nothing wrong with him, they will reason, that a stronger supporting cast, better coaching, and a fresh start won’t fix. That a respected offensive guru like Gary Kubiak is willing to part with the physically-gifted Carr after making him his pet project will deter some, but not all.
So to approximate his value, Carr should be compared to those quarterbacks who were acquired to at least compete for starting jobs: Trent Green, Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Bledsoe, Daunte Culpepper, Aaron Brooks, Mark Brunell, A.J. Feeley (in 2004), Trent Dilfer (in 2005), and Steve McNair. Based on those trades, the minimum price for Carr would be a 2007 fourth-round pick or the equivalent.
Notably absent from that group are the two players to whom Carr has been most often compared throughout his pro career, fellow 2002 first-rounders Joey Harrington and, to a lesser extent, Patrick Ramsey. Some would argue that the three are so similar that the Texans would not be able to get more than the fifth-round pick that the Lions garnered for Harrington last year. However, neither Harrington nor Ramsey showed Carr’s upside even though each was in a better situation with the team that drafted him than Carr had with the expansion Texans. Harrington and Ramsey were acquired as insurance policies by teams with starters coming back from season-ending injuries (the Dolphins’ Culpepper and the Jets’ Chad Pennington); no one wanted them in the starting lineup.
Carr’s situation is not identical to that of any of the other traded quarterbacks; he rates higher in some areas and lower in others. He should have more of his career ahead of him than did Green, Bledsoe, Brunell, Dilfer, and McNair when they were dealt. He’s more of a known quantity and as a result less of a risk than were Hasselbeck, Brooks, and Feeley, who as young back-ups had only seen the field in the preseason and limited regular-season opportunities. He isn’t coming off major knee surgery and an embarrassing scandal like Culpepper was.
On the other hand, Carr hasn’t played nearly as well or accomplished nearly as much as had the six veterans, who had collectively earned 13 Pro Bowl selections and an NFL co-MVP award and had quarterbacked teams to three Super Bowls (including one victory) and numerous playoff appearances. He wouldn’t have one of his former coaches wanting to plug him into a familiar offensive system, like Green did with Dick Vermeil. While he represents the team well off the field and seems to be liked by his teammates, he doesn’t appear, from an outsider’s perspective, to be the kind of leader that his teammates rally around as some of the others are.
So where does that leave Carr? Most likely worth a third-round pick or the equivalent, or perhaps a third-rounder that could become a second if he reaches certain milestones. He has more potential than most of the other traded players but doesn’t have the track record of a proven, playoff-caliber quarterback.
All that being said, the market will ultimately determine Carr’s value and the supply and demand appear favorable for a team looking to deal a quarterback. The only potential starters, and not necessarily quality starters, in the free agent class are journeymen Jeff Garcia, Brooks, Kerry Collins, Anthony Wright, and possibly Tim Rattay. Garcia is coming off an impressive season but at age 36 is not anyone’s long-term answer. Matt Schaub is a restricted free agent who some believe could develop into a top starter if given the chance, but he would cost a team a first- and third-round picks plus a contract offer the Falcons would not match. Jake Plummer announced his retirement after being traded to Tampa Bay, so he may or may not still be in play. Byron Leftwich, who is similar to Carr in terms of age, experience, and unfulfilled potential may also be available for the right price.
It doesn’t appear that the draft will yield many (if any) ready-for-primetime passers; if JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn are the only quarterbacks taken in the first round, it will be the first time since 2001 that less than three go that early. On the demand side, the Raiders, Vikings, Lions, Dolphins, Browns, Bucs (depending on how the Plummer deal shakes out), and Texans could all be looking for an upgrade at the position.
With the offseason trading period now open, maybe we’ll see how the market, or at least the Texans and one other team, really values Carr. Is this fixer-upper overpriced, or is he a steal? Perhaps we’ll find out soon.
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