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Keith04-18-2007, 07:46 PMApril 19, 2007
X Mocks the Spot
by Bob Hulsey
HoustonProFootball.com

Like a bad dream that never finishes, so are the Draft Day stories of the Houston Texans. This will be the first spring in franchise history without Charley Casserly at the helm and hope springs eternal that the new bosses can assess and acquire talent better than the old ones.

Coach Gary Kubiak had a hand in last year’s draft which took place before the hiring of General Manager Rick Smith. The result was the Texans’ best draft to date although, for many, passing on the opportunity to select Reggie Bush or Vince Young leaves a bitter taste in their mouths. All six of Houston’s picks saw the field last year and one (second-rounder DeMeco Ryans) was simply outstanding. The others, including top choice Mario Williams, gave glimpses of their potential if they develop properly.

The trade with Atlanta to acquire QB Matt Schaub dropped the Texans two spots in the first round and cost them their second-rounder for this year and next. It is absolutely essential that the Texans get an impact player in the first round since their next choice won’t come until the 73rd pick.

For my sixth annual Chance Pearce Memorial Mock Draft, here’s the cards I’d take to the podium.

The Schaub trade makes any thought of trading back up in the first round too expensive. If an offer came to trade down and involved getting a second-round choice, I’d have to give it serious consideration. A chance to improve two needs instead of one would surely be tempting. But, before I deal, there are two guys I’d want to take at #10 if they fell to us.

The first is Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson who would not only give the running game the franchise back it has never had but would soothe a lot of raw emotions that haven’t recovered from the Williams pick last year.

As much as I was against taking Bush last year, that’s how much I am for taking Peterson this year. He has the size and toughness to produce inside and still has the speed to take it the distance. He also has the vision and cut-back ability to excel behind a zone blocking scheme. Ahman Green was a nice pickup but he’s 30 years old and was rode pretty hard at the Frozen Tundra Corral. Having Green and Peterson would give Kubiak some insurance against injuries and a fresh back whenever one needs a rest. It also means Schaub has a constant weapon in the backfield to take pressure off him.

The only knock on Peterson is a series of injuries he suffered at Oklahoma but none were to vital joints or ligaments. He could be as good as Eric Dickerson if everything works to plan.

My problem is that Peterson might go as early as Cleveland’s pick at #3 and I hate to forecast selections that drop well below value. My other top choice at #10 is more likely to be there so, Dr. Ron, write this down.

1. (10th overall) Patrick Willis, MLB, Mississippi

At first glance, this sounds absurd. Ryans was terrific as the middle linebacker. Why should we upgrade the only position on the team that doesn’t seem to need it?

Hear me out. I could tell you that Willis is Ryans-on-steroids but that might leave the wrong impression. Willis is a bigger, thicker version of Ryans who, like DeMeco, makes plays all over the field and has great instincts. Even before his Pro Day time of 4.37 in the 40 came out (a time I have trouble accepting, by the way), I knew this guy could and will flat out be a beast out there like the Bears’ Brian Urlacher.

The one part of Ryans’ game that worries me is that, at 235 lbs, he lacks the heft to impose his will in the middle. The thicker Willis can do this and has room to add another 10 pounds to his 240 frame and be highly effective. Even if 4.37 was a mirage, Willis at 4.45 is going to knock your socks off.

Mike Nolan of the 49ers was wowed by Willis during Senior Bowl Week and, when asked to compare him to Ryans who he coached in Mobile the year before, he said Willis was the more impressive of the two.

Ryans would be moved to the weakside linebacker spot held by Morlon Greenwood where he can be used more on blitzes and stunts, giving opponents someone else they have to gameplan against besides Williams and reducing (not eliminating) the need for a speed rusher at the other end of the defensive line from Mario.

With some combination of Ryans, Willis and the take-your-pick buffet of Greenwood, Kailee Wong, Danny Green or Shawn Barber on the strongside, the Texans would finally have a unit the rest of the NFL can envy rather than exploit.

Best of all, Willis is the most bust-proof of any player this side of Calvin Johnson. He’s a hard worker of outstanding character who has overcome family adversity and plays with a mean streak as well as a sense of dedication. On the late Eddie Robinson’s “marry-my-daughter” scale, he’s a “9” if not a “10”. Like Peterson, Willis has had some injuries in college but he played through them showing the toughness you want for the middle man.

I wouldn’t be outraged to see us take OT Levi Brown (Penn St.), DE Jamaal Anderson (Alabama), CB Leon Hall (Michigan) or DT Alan Branch (Michigan) with the tenth pick but Peterson and Willis are the two I feel most confident about putting on the field.

2. (39th overall) Traded before the draft to Atlanta for QB Matt Schaub

This goes back to my comment about needing the #10 pick to be “bust-proof”. Remember 2005 when Casserly dealt his second and third round choices for Phillip Buchanon and took the underwhelming Travis Johnson in the first round? The 2005 season was a disaster off the field before it was a disaster on the field. 2007 needs to be different and it starts with getting somebody on Draft Day who plays like a star. The Schaub trade puts added pressure on Smith and Kubiak to get the first pick right.

3. (73rd overall) A.J. Davis, CB, North Carolina State

The Texans could choose any of 50 different people here and make sense of it. They need help at cornerback, safety, wide receiver, defensive line and offensive line that could all be addressed in the third round. Davis is a smallish corner who is fluid in coverage but lacking in run support.

Just about anyone taken here will have some upside and some warts. I’m not really high on anyone expected to go in this round and most of the guys at the need positions have several guys in a group (CB, WR, OT, S) where one is probably just as good as the next. Therefore, unless someone I like unexpectedly falls to us, I’d be willing to send this pick to someone who would give us a 2008 second-rounder or give us an extra fourth and fifth selections in exchange. San Francisco and New Orleans, both with multiple fourth-round picks, would be ideal trading partners in the latter scenario.

4. (107th overall) Adam Koets, OT, Oregon State

We simply don’t know what the answer is at left tackle for the Texans this year but having one more option is not a bad thing. All it would take is one tackle (Charles Spencer, Eric Winston, Jordan Black, Ephraim Salaam) that can get through the season to start finding answers. The downside of taking Levi Brown in the first round would be the investment spent if Spencer turns out to be back at full health. Taking Koets in the fourth wouldn’t be as heavy a price and he can be hidden on the practice squad for a year while he bulks up which he’s going to need to do if he’s a long-term solution. If none of the four options pan out, Koets can be pressed into service. He should be okay in pass blocking but he’s not much of a run blocker at this point. Some scouts also question his passion for the game.

5. (144th overall) Daniel Sepulveda, P, Baylor

I suspect the Texans will take a running back in the Bronco mold here instead if they haven’t nabbed Peterson. I’d bet Kubiak would be even more eager to take Colorado PK Mason Crosby than Sepulveda if he wanted to draft a kicker but somebody else will have probably taken Crosby by this point.

I was once in Chad Stanley’s corner but he has decreased his punting average and left too many opponents in good field position. Although an answer can probably be found after the draft, taking a local kid with a cannon leg is as good a value here as taking a chance on any number of backups and special teamers.

6. (183rd overall) Uche Nwaneri, OG, Purdue

Like an offensive lineman who packs a punch? Nwaneri broke the jaw of a teammate who had insulted him during an offseason workout and was suspended for a year because of it. He’s a raw talent who has the agility for the zone blocking scheme and the toughness to hold off oncoming rushers. He needs work in run blocking, having come from a school with wide splits that passes a lot.

7. (218th overall) Patrick Bugg, WR, Eastern Kentucky

This 6-5 pest could be difficult to swat in the red zone. Expect him to generate a buzz.

Bob Hulsey doesn’t play a draft expert on television – or anywhere else. He’s just one of the millions who do mocks for fun and fury.

Link (https://houstonprofootball.com/review/review66.html)

painekiller04-19-2007, 01:28 PMI could live with this one.

Euro-Texan04-19-2007, 02:12 PMI see that all three CBS Sportsline.com mock drafts have us taking Leon Hall

cland04-20-2007, 05:04 PMNothing personal Bob, you and I are usually on the same page, but I can’t help but Hate your draft.

1. (10th overall) Patrick Willis, MLB, Mississippi

I like Willis as a player, but I just can’t get behind that pick. If you could convince me that this guy could be a run-stopping, QB blitzing terror from the SLB spot I would like it more, but I can’t see moving Ryans out of MLB. I see it from a BPA standpoint, but I don’t think the Texans’ are there yet. I just don’t see the value of the Williams>Ryan + Ryans>Greenwood in the wins column, when compared to Hall>Faggins, Anderson>Babin, Landry or Nelson>Brown, etc.

3. (73rd overall) A.J. Davis, CB, North Carolina State

I don’t mind corner here, but not this corner. The 3rd round is way to high to spend on a med-small guy with 4.5 speed. Best case for davis is nickel corner. I also don’t see the dearth of talent that would justify trading this pick for a medium value deal for the 2008 draft. I think this is where we get a WR or clean up on a DB that has fallen out of the 2nd round.

4. (107th overall) Adam Koets, OT, Oregon State

I don’t like the project tackle here. I think there are two options regarding tackle: The texans’ take one in the 1st cause they think Spencer’s not coming back, or you pass on the 1st round LT and hope that Spencer makes it. If you gamble wrong on Spencer’s return you live with Salaam/Winston/Black and spend big dollars on a LT next year. I think we go small school FS/CB/WR here if that position hasn’t fallen at this point.

5. (144th overall) Daniel Sepulveda, P, Baylor

Too high for a punter.

6. (183rd overall) Uche Nwaneri, OG, Purdue

No opinion.

7. (218th overall) Patrick Bugg, WR, Eastern Kentucky

I’ll take that.

Bob04-20-2007, 09:26 PMNot offended. Willis is “outside the box” thinking. Also, when Ryans and Willis get longer in the tooth, I could see moving Ryans to MLB and Willis to SLB but the SLB has to cover the tight end which is Willis’ weakness at this point. He’s not natural in pass coverage but he is a tackling machine and I’d love to have two of them out there on every down. I think Willis can be Ray Lewis without the character issues.

I’m not really thrilled about 3rd, 4th or 5th either but pretty much everyone there is underwhelming to me. This is a lean year for players which means you either look for specialists or risks or guys who lack measurables or who project as special-teamers. I eventually decided to go corner over safety in the third because corner is a harder position to fill.

We’ll find out what the Texans think next weekend. It might tells us a lot about their drafting theories.

chuck04-20-2007, 10:30 PMI would be happy to take Sepulveda at 144 but I doubt seriously that he’ll be there.

dadmg04-21-2007, 01:17 PMI’d be happy with this mock. Willis is one of my favorite players in this draft, and while I haven’t thought about the Texans taking him much, I’d say he’s about the surest thing to be a perennial Pro Bowler in the entire draft (just slightly moreso than Calvin Johnson). I just can’t see this guy going wrong. Because I’m locked in to the thought of BPA over need with this draft, that’d be more than fine with me. And considering how the Broncos always seemed willing to spend first round picks on linebackers during Kubiak’s tenure (and always seemed to get good results…John Mobley, Al Wilson, DJ Williams), I wouldn’t be terribly shocked to see it play out.

TexanJedi04-21-2007, 06:54 PMGood article Bob, I would be fine with Willis. However, there are two corrections in order: Danny Clark (not Green), and Jamaal Anderson played at Arkansas (not Bama). 😀

Bob04-21-2007, 09:49 PMGood article Bob, I would be fine with Willis. However, there are two corrections in order: Danny Clark (not Green), and Jamaal Anderson played at Arkansas (not Bama). 😀

Thanks for the catches. My brain is just insistent that this linebacker’s name is Green. As for Arkansas-Alabama, that’s another mental block (same conference, same colors, both start with A, etc.)

nunusguy04-22-2007, 03:23 PMWhy try to fix it if it ain’t broken, and DeMeco Ryans at MLB is not broken. As we all know he made DROY and should have and would have gone to the Pro Bowl if he played for a higher profile team, a team that ESPN gave a lot of positive pub to.
Having said that, I got not problem with taking the Ole Miss backer if the Texans have him rated that high. But leave Ryans in the middle where he had a nearly perfect rookie season and decide if Willis is best for the team on the weakside or over at SAM.
But yea, everyone is enamored with this Joe Staley who will almost surely be available at #10 with Willis. If the Texans feel that Willis is say, the 5th best player in the Draft while they rate Staley no better than 25, reaching for a need position like LT and passing on a truley superior player is just the sort of thing that gets a team in big trouble over the long-term. Does the name Jason Babin ring a bell ?

Roy Pickett04-22-2007, 10:11 PMNot offended. Willis is “outside the box” thinking.

We’ll find out what the Texans think next weekend. It might tells us a lot about their drafting theories.

I just finished my last draft board before the Draft (ha!) and was tempted to put Willis at #3 behind AD and Landry.

Then, you hit it on the head when you said, “I eventually decided to go corner…because corner is a harder position to fill.” No matter how hard I try, I can’t move Willis ahead of Leon Hall.

The 4.39 – 40, 4.07 – Shuttle, and 6.5 – Cone just reaffirmed to me that he’s the best CB in the draft.

If I had seen more games of Darrell Revis I might have him ranked over Willis and Carriker too.

nunusguy04-23-2007, 07:29 AMNo matter how hard I try, I can’t move Willis ahead of Leon Hall.

The 4.39 – 40, 4.07 – Shuttle, and 6.5 – Cone just reaffirmed to me that he’s the best CB in the draft.

If I had seen more games of Darrell Revis I might have him ranked over Willis and Carriker too.
Revis has a 4.38 40, a 4.08 shuttle, and a 6.56 cone. In other words his measureables are practically identical to Hall and yet he’s an excellent punt/kickoff returner and he’s not on film gettin torched by Ginn & Jarrett.
I gotta go with the Pitt corner over Hall.

superbowlbound04-23-2007, 12:47 PMI can definitely get behind the willis pick. Yeah, Demeco is a monster in the middle, and should’ve been a pro-bowler, but remember last year? everyone and their mother was saying “Demeco’s best suited on the weak side” “sure, he can play in the middle, and that’s fine at first, but we gotta get a real MLB so he can move to the Will, where he’ll be dominant.” If he’s this good at his “unnatural” position, how much of a BAMF will he be when he goes home? Can you imagine those two anchoring the defense? holy wow would that be something special. 2 guys playing next to each other that are just always around the ball. we’d be putting guys on “Jakked up” all the time! helicoptering people and whatnot.

chuck04-23-2007, 08:34 PMRevis has a 4.38 40, a 4.08 shuttle, and a 6.56 cone. In other words his measureables are practically identical to Hall and yet he’s an excellent punt/kickoff returner and he’s not on film gettin torched by Ginn & Jarrett.
I gotta go with the Pitt corner over Hall.

And unless I’ve lost my mind, he’s taller, too.

Roy Pickett04-23-2007, 09:28 PMAnd unless I’ve lost my mind, he’s taller, too.

He’s got 1/4″ on Hall.

Here is my reasoning on having Hall over Revis. I’ve seen him play. I did not catch as many Pitt games, and when I did I was paying more attention to Palko and Blades. Revis was a Junior, so he kind of slipped unnoticed. Also, Hall posted his times in Indy not at his Pro Day.

That being said, if the Texans take Revis over Hall, I won’t burn my Texans T-Shirt or anything. I have Revis as the 6th best prospect on my board.

Joel04-23-2007, 11:30 PMso … willis is faster than them both. at lb. and this discussion is still happening?

passing up the “surest pro bowler in the draft” at #10, unless he is a punter, is a mistake.